Pakistan Floods- Why India Must Be Ready

Pakistan continues to be ravaged by the remorseless fury of the rain gods. The scope of the natural disaster, which continues to wreak havoc, is wide and far reaching. Already struggling to sustain a strangulated economy, the future certainly looks bleak for the country. The repercussions of the worst floods to hit Pakistan in 80 years will be serious. Water related issues are now certain to assume greater prominence in future negotiations between India and Pakistan and the two countries simply cannot afford to indulge in evasive waffle like in the past. New Delhi's lack of consensus was equally responsible as Shah Mehmood Qureshi's incoherent rambling for the cul-de-sac that the last round of negotiations turned out to be.

India needs to pencil down a strategy on how to deal with the aftermath of this tragedy. Pakistan is now faced with a wide array of issues ranging from the economic ramifications of the disaster, to the changing political nomenclature in the country. The economic impact of this grave humanitarian crisis is telling. Over 20 million people have been displaced, 1600 have lost their lives. One fifth of Pakistan has been inundated. The United Nations (UN) estimates that 9 million people need urgent attention. Crops sown over an area of 1.93 million acres have been destroyed. Agriculture is a very important component in Pakistan's frail economy, and this tragedy has severely jolted this sector compounded by the threat of hunger and disease which continue to loom. Only after the flood waters recede will the entire magnitude of the devastation come to light.

It will cost billions of dollars for Pakistan to put its house in order. To add to the misery, its external debt is already a whopping $55.60 billion. To make matters worse, Pakistan's international image as a sponsor of terror has limited aid relief efforts. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) which was instituted in the aftermath of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake has responded poorly. All these facts don't augur well for the future.

With the entire country in disarray, and the army assisting in the rescue efforts, the Taliban may find enough time to regroup. Organisations like the Jammat- ud- Dawa (JUD) which are linked to Lakshar-e- Tayyeba are participating in the relief efforts. This is a grave concern echoed by many observers since such activities will prove to be a major obstacle in dismantling terror camps which have mushroomed across Pakistan. An unstable neighborhood where security is breached by Islamic radicals is likely to have spillover effects into India as well.

The proactive role played by the army in the light of an incompetent government may allow the army -- the single most powerful entity in the country -- to gain a stronghold in the country's state of affairs. This is again an undesired outcome for the entire region.

Pakistan's civil society has also underperformed. The nation's history has been mired by military interventions which have stifled democracy and civil society. Non Governmental Organization's (NGO's) in the country have suffered owing to a cash strapped government. The Freedom of Association, a right guaranteed under Article 17 of the Constitution, has been all too frequently violated. Suicide bombings have toned down or muted the liberal voices in the country. The civil society now has to endure the debilitating after-effects of the floods which will undermine it even further.

Pakistan is in a precarious position today. India's role in directly assisting the county is limited. Enduring animosity and a mounting trust deficit between the two countries has made Pakistan reluctant to accept any direct aid. India, at best, can boost its contribution via the UN with the hope that it reaches the hapless victims. It is also imperative for India's policy makers to articulate a coherent strategy to counter the cascading effects of the tragedy which will follow in the months to come.