Floored Opposition is Desperate

The Congress is worried that the Modi Government has made two bold moves in less than two months, which it cannot challenge: Surgical strikes in Pakistan and withdrawal of high denomination notes to combat black money

It is a strange feeling. All of a sudden, the esoteric discipline of economics — long left to the inscrutable minds of economists — is in the limelight. Everybody seems to be propounding his or her own grand view on the state of affairs and the consequences of the demonetisation move. These range from inflation, deflation to an impending financial emergency. The end result, and we have a reason to be optimistic, will hinge on a constellation of different factors over the coming months. Rampant pessimism, which has permeated the discourse on black money, is an impulsive reaction.

John Kenneth Galbraith, the renowned economist and a firm advocate of liberalism, once quipped, “Economics is an extremely useful form of employment for economists.” Economists are pre-disposed to enunciating wild theories and arriving at a number of different conclusions. Edgar Fielder, a former Assistant Secretary of Treasury during the Nixon Administration, once famously stated, “For an economist, the real world is often a special case.” By no means does anyone mean to undermine the profession, but history is a testimony to the fact that, at times the conclusions economists arrive at, after evaluating the empirical evidence, are erroneous. Everything could have been prevented in retrospect.

The same is said about the 2008 financial crisis which wreaked havoc in the developed world and crippled America’s finances. Carefully crafted policy prescriptions flow in after an economic disaster. Little is said about staving off the disaster. Most recently, global agencies and a number of prominent economists predicted an economic catastrophe if the United Kingdom voted ‘Leave’ prior to the Brexit referendum. The doomsday scenario has not quite played out there.

It is abundantly clear that the radical demonetisation move will certainly reduce the quantum of black money floating in the economy, by a certain degree. This is indisputable. Fighting black money and weeding out its evils require a revolution by the people. In pursuit of a clean society, the common man is bound to endure a little trouble. Terror funding will take a hit, and from a national security point of view, this is again a wise move. The radical decision has fostered an understanding of the evils of black money in the minds of the public. It has also instilled an element of fear in the corrupt minds of the depraved.

But what is really disquieting is the profound lack of understanding behind the move various political parties are displaying. One is beginning to think that, if India engages in an armed conflict with its western neighbour, the Government will be spending more time appeasing inter-party issues than focusing on the hostilities.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has a penchant for betraying a poor understanding of economic theory. The fiasco with Tata Motors in Singur, West Bengal, was a stinging example of poor economics. Her rebellious temperament and an inexplicable demand for withdrawing the demonetisation scheme are shocking, to say the least. The BJP is already facing a stormy Winter Session of Parliament.

The Congress, desperately looking to rebrand itself, has finally found one issue to harp over, which resonates with the underprivileged. Unable to revive itself since its election debacle in 2014, it is most certainly going to hold on to this issue tenaciously.

In reality, what the Congress fears is that the Modi Government has made two bold moves in less than two moves, which it cannot challenge: The surgical strikes in Pakistan and withdrawal of high denomination notes to combat corruption, black money and terror and drug funding. Couple this with a more aggressive foreign policy posturing, as against India's accommodative foreign policy under the UPA regime, and you have the Congress scampering to re-invent itself as a party with some semblance of prestige.

The Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi seems to have forgotten about the looming pollution emergency. Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s diatribe against the Prime Minister is something we are all immune to. His routine outbursts and lengthy tirade of accusations are humorous. Protesting for the sake of protesting, serves no real purpose. In fact, it defeats the purpose by spreading propaganda. The people of Delhi want him to govern effectively and efficiently. Kejriwal must put his own house in order prior to engaging in dirty mudslinging. Reprimanding the Union Government for all problems that plague his State will not go down well with the plebeian minds. It is a lost battle.

Meanwhile, let us hope that the opposition parties do not hold Parliament hostage as they did in 2015, by stalling important Bills. Also, it would be refreshing to hear refined arguments and eloquent parliamentary debates which uphold the honor and sanctity of the institution. No citizen likes to watch impertinent parliamentarians.

(The writer is a political commentator)

First Published in The Pioneer