Russia, China are forging new military alliance

The West and the world must engage with Russia to curtail its military alliance with China

Lately, there has been a lot of brouhaha over Chinese President Xi Jinping’s decision to skip the G20 in New Delhi this week. This news came weeks after the Kremlin announced that President Vladimir Putin would not be attending the summit.

Political commentators have viewed this development as an indication of turbulent times ahead. The Russia-China alliance is strengthening and this is a clear indicator that there appears to be a stumbling block to democratic values which much of the free world cherishes. Essentially, relations between countries are fluid and they hinge on ongoing developments. The Western alliance must realise that isolating Russia will have ramifications and the only prudent way ahead is to negotiate firmly and, in the process, make concessions to weaken the Russia-China alliance. What the West urgently requires is a paradigm shift.

Recent reports about China’s ambition to establish a blue-water navy have been dismissed. China, today has the world’s largest navy and is surreptitiously seeking to expand its sphere of influence. It is undoubtedly an economic behemoth for the time being, but a more pertinent question that arises is why is Putin veering towards China.

Putin is an elusive leader who has his quirks. A man described by many as indifferent, hard-hearted and a brilliant strategist. In all, he has dealt with several American Presidents. When he assumed office, former President Clinton was serving his last term in office. It was the late 90’s. When the two leaders met for bilateral talks, Clinton intuitively sensed that Putin did not have democracy in his agenda. The former KGB officer viewed the West as a formidable adversary.

Putin desires to reignite the glory of the former Soviet Union. He does not recognise Ukraine to be a sovereign nation; a viewpoint he expressed to the next US President, George W Bush, in the NATO- Russia Council (NRC) in 2008. This striking perspective was articulated when Bush hinted that NATO was open to admitting Georgia and Ukraine into the alliance. By now, Putin had reached his patience threshold. Bush had already declared the ‘war on terror’ which in Putin’s view was America’s way of exporting democracy in Afghanistan and Iraq. Putin’s response was brutal. He invaded Georgia the same year to reinforce the message to the US. America did not interfere.

The Putin-Obama bilateral meeting has been described by many observers as fruitless. By now, Putin was engaging with a third President. When then-Vice President Joe Biden met Putin to chart the way ahead, the meeting was uncomfortable and tense. They exchanged reproachful looks in the back doors. Biden publicly propagated the importance of strengthening democratic values in Russia. This was viewed by Putin as a direct and veritable threat to his hold on Russia. What ensued were anti-Putin protests. His response- invade Ukraine and annex Crimea in 2014. When Biden insisted that America send military aid to Ukraine, Obama disregarded his opinion.

Putin was now emboldened. He felt he could employ his military apparatus to achieve political ends and the West would not interfere. But when Putin decided to launch a special military operation in February last year, NATO was quick to send military aid. Putin wrongly believed that just like on previous occasions he would have his way. It was a miscalculation of monumental proportions. It is vitally important for the West and for the world to engage with Russia to curtail this new military alliance. The US must make overtures and be ready to negotiate. Its intransigence is only going to make Russia a more belligerent nation and lead to further escalation; something the world cannot afford at this juncture.

(The writer is a commentator on foreign affairs; views are personal)

First Published in The Pioneer on 9th September 2023